Ozone and the I-49 Connector: Why should we care?

DOTD I-49 Urban Route.

Recent local news articles on KATC and in The Acadiana Advocate  reported an LDEQ warning that on June 19 Lafayette would have high levels of ozone. LDEQ declared an Ozone Action Day for Lafayette. Why should we care about ozone?

First, high ozone levels are a risk to health, particularly among our most vulnerable citizens. Those who work or exercise outdoors are also at risk.  

Second, Lafayette has in the past been close to non-attainment for ozone, while Baton Rouge has been out of compliance. Currently all of Louisiana is considered to be in compliance with the federal standard of 70 parts-per-billion for ozone. Lafayette air pollution has improved, but there are continuing calls to make the ozone standard more protective. Non-attainment matters to Lafayette's future economic growth which could be impacted by restrictions and new requirements placed on any industry wanting to locate here. Beyond that, the most sought after companies looking for a new location are far less likely to choose a city with recognized poor air quality. Bottom line: our current good air quality is a plus for Lafayette to recruit new economic development. 

Finally, what has ozone got to do with the I-49 Connector? If you listen to Louisiana DOTD and their consultants who are writing the I-49 Environmental Impact Statement you might think ozone and air pollution have nothing to do with their plan. But, our biggest source of ozone in Lafayette is from cars. Common sense tells us that the proposed elevated interstate through the heart of our city is going to concentrate heavy traffic on city streets that lead to and from the interstate. Further, much local traffic will avoid using the elevated highway because of its limited points of access and exit. Those cars and trucks will be forced to sit in traffic on city streets. And, if the Connector has tolls, expect even more traffic forced down to city streets. Expect troubling increases in ground level ozone.

LRX Bypass Corridor Options (DOTD)

This doesn't have to happen! The proposed Lafayette Metro eXpressway (LRX) would allow through traffic and hazardous cargo to bypass the central city. For almost two decades we the taxpayers have funded planning for the LRX bypass. It is time to act and choose this alternative. The LRX would draw traffic away from easily congested urban streets and save local tax monies as city street expansions are no longer needed. The LRX would improve rather than worsen ozone pollution in Lafayette. If the I-49 Connector is built, we will be stuck with its induced traffic congestion and resulting bad air in our city for decades. Let's just not go there! 

Public comment from 16 years ago documents our citizens' struggle against the I-49 Con

Click on letter to enlarge.

The following comment by Kelly Roberts Caldwell dated April 30, 2001 was included in the FEIS, Volume II, page 299.  

Today, citizens continue to "battle a proposal that is, on its face, senseless." Now the senseless plan is called the I-49 Con.  




Secretary Kam Movassaghi
Department of Transportation & Development
P.O. Box 94245
Baton Rouge, LA 70804
Dear Sir:

The citizens of Lafayette fully support the extension of I-49 South. We strongly support a
Lafayette eastern bypass and are deeply opposed to an elevated interstate thru the heart of
our city. In July, 1992, a public meeting was held after an EIS was distributed of the Evangeline
Thruway corridor plan. Citizens voiced overwhelming opposition resulting in its withdrawal. In
1997, the project was restarted by DOTD at the urging of the chamber of Commerce leadership
who have relentlessly pursued the Evangeline Thruway placement. New strategy! Lead the
public to believe that other alternatives are being considered. Many reasonably assumed that the
1992 official public rejection eliminated Evangeline Thruway. Wrong! Residents realized very
late thai the "alternatives" were all simply "variations" of the previously rejected Thruway plan.

I am a spokesperson for a campaign by The Sierra Club, Citizens Speak Out, Sterling Grove
Historic Association, Tree Society of Acadiana, Annabelle Subdivision Association, and others
joined to promote an I-49 eastern bypass. Our petition has over 1000 signatures with more added
each day. Lafayette citizens arc now at risk from the 50,000 vehicles per day on Evangeline
Thruway, many hauling hazardous materials. Why plan to increase the risk with 100,000 daily
estimated for completed I-49? Proponents insist an eastern bypass was studied and rejected.
Rejected by whom? Where are the studies? Why choose this destruction and danger to our
community? ls it simply a price the local power structure is willing to pay to keep the project all
within Lafayette Parish - avoid sharing with our neighbor, St. Martin?

We are told a Lafayette eastern bypass would impact wetlands (though their plan requires moving
a runway at our airport into wetlands). Harold Schoeffler, a well known businessman and
environmentalist and Pierce Meleton, respected architect, and others actually mapped out a route
to the east between Breaux Bridge and Lafayette into St. Martin. It runs beyond Cypress Island
Swamp but west of the beautiful Teche thru sugar cane fields and pasture land coming back into
90 below Broussard. Destroys no homes or businesses. Gives St. Martin needed interstate
access and avoids the adverse impacts in Lafayette. Be vastly superior for evacuation- with two
highways out rather than the one sure to become an elevated trap in Lafayette. When taken to
highway engineers cost estimates were about half that of cutting thru lafayette. Likely you were
sent the St. Martin resolution asking that the Teche Ridge alternative be considered.

Citizens must battle to save themselves from a proposal that is, on its face, senseless? Impacts
to the human and natural environment so enormous that governments' talk of "mitigation" is a
joke in the community. An elevated federal interstate alongside a national historic district?
Elderly, poor and minorities disproportionately impacted? Their sector of the city walled of!?
Please do what you can.

Kelly Roberts Caldwell

The specter of tolls on the I-49 Connector

By SPUI [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

The Specter of Tolls on I-49 continues. On June 4, 2016, we learned in the Advertiser's report on the end of the legislative session that "The State... opened new possibilities for creating toll roads where they might spur construction." It appears from the article that One Acadiana had lobbied for this change. The Advocate (May 31, 2016) reported that State Secretary of Transportation, Shawn Wilson, told the state legislature that tolls on state highways and bridges are an option under consideration and that Gov. John Bel Edwards’ administration is “very supportive of tolling as an option to fund transportation and to fund projects that are significant." We have also heard Secretary Wilson say that the Lafayette Connector which they are actively promoting is very significant. Could tolls on the Lafayette Connector be a part of the administration's plan? At this point it appears likely.

The specter of tolls on the I-49 Connector and all of I-49 South has been foreshadowed for years. Former Secretary of Transportation Kam Movassaghi was quoted (The Independent, April 14, 2009) saying that tolls must be considered for funding I-49 construction. An expert speaking to a meeting sponsored by One Acadiana (The Advocate, October 22, 2015) suggested that a toll of $0.19 per mile might be used to fund I-49 completion, and an Advocate article (September 22, 2014) reported that a state funded feasibility study looked at $0.18 per mile for I-49 funding. Former State Senator and then I-49 South Coalition Director, Mike Michot, was quoted in that same article saying about I-49 South "It seems unlikely a project of that magnitude will be built without the help of toll dollars."

However, tolls have been ruled to be outside the range of discussion in DOTD Community Work Group and Technical Work Group meetings held this year. When questioned, state DOTD employees and their contractors have typically refused to discuss just how the so-called Connector will be funded. The most we are now told is that the question of methods of financing will be considered at some future time after we make the decision to proceed with a selected design.

DOTD has not ruled out collecting tolls to finance the Connector, they have simply ruled it to be inappropriate as an item of discussion. Clearly charging tolls for use of the proposed I-49 Connector would impact many of the project's projected benefits, and could add new design constraints. Why has DOTD chosen to ignore this specter? We can imagine two reasons:

1. DOTD recognizes that placing tolls on Lafayette citizens for local travel will increase the unpopularity of their already locally unpopular Connector plan.
2. DOTD's excessively high planning projections of 100,000 vehicles per day would become even more suspect because many drivers, particularly those making frequent local trips would avoid the cost and inconvenience of tolls by taking alternative city street routes. 

A tolled I-49 in Lafayette would have significant impact on traffic levels on alternative city streets - Louisiana Avenue, University Avenue, and the degraded capacity Evangeline Thruway envisioned in most Connector alternatives.  The current traffic models being used to frighten us with onerous future projections assume free access to the proposed Connector. Until tolls are taken off the table, model projections should include tolled as well as free access alternatives in all planning projections.

Here is my own conceptual traffic model projection. A toll of $0.18 to $0.19 per mile will result in a toll of about $1.00 in each direction on the 5.5 mile Connector. For a commuting worker with a 250 day work year, this effectively adds a new $500 annual tax if they choose to commute on the toll way. Again, the Connector will become a Divider, allowing those who can afford the added cost to ride at high speed and with little traffic, while the common people of Lafayette Parish will be segregated onto the even more traffic congested city streets.

The option of tolls is clearly still on the table. Until DOTD makes the determination about whether this will be a toll road, all planning is simple fantasy.


References and further reading discussing the likelihood of tolls for Acadiana:

The Independent, April 14, 2009, Movassaghi: tolls must be considered for I-49
 http://theind.com/article-3949-movassaghi-tolls-must-be-considered-for-i-49.html

The Independent, January 12, 2012, Guest editorial: Public-private route for I-49 South?
 http://theind.com/article-9431-Guest-editorial-Public-private-route-for-I-49-South.html

The Independent, January 18, 2012, Southern Strategy
 http://theind.com/article-9451-Southern-Strategy.html

The Independent, November 13, 2012, La. 1 a good example for I-49 South
 http://theind.com/article-11687-La-1-a-good-example-for-I-49-South.html

The Advocate, September 22, 2014, Tolls are possible to complete Interstate 49 South
  http://theadvocate.com/news/10339811-123/tolls-are-possible-to-complete

The Advocate, October 22, 2015, Finance expert: I-49 Connector through Lafayette would require tolls, taxes or both to fund construction
 http://theadvocate.com/news/13766344-123/finance-expert-i-49-connector-through

The Advertiser, October 23, 2015, Citigroup and the Lafayette Loop — what's next?
 http://www.theadvertiser.com/story/news/2015/10/22/citigroup-and-lafayette-loop/74359164/

Toll Road News, October 23, 2016, Tolling an Option for $750-800 Million Louisiana Project
 http://tollroadsnews.com/news/daily-news-brief-october-23-2015

The Advocate, May 31, 2016, Tolls a possibility to fund major road projects as state faces $12.7 billion backlog, DOTD leader says 
http://theadvocate.com/news/15959711-123/tolls-a-possibility-to-fund-major-road-projects-as-state-faces-127-billion-backlog-dotd-leader-says#comments

The Advertiser, June 4, 2016, Session's end: What's won, what's left
 http://www.theadvertiser.com/story/news/2016/06/03/sessions-end-whats-won-whats-left/85373342/

______________________________________
Note: This is an updated and expanded version of a post first published on June 1, 2016.

The I-49 Lafayette Bypass Option: Teche Ridge

Google Earth image showing the approximate path of the
proposed Teche Ridge bypass.

For nearly two decades, Acadiana residents and taxpayers have urged DOTD to consider an I-49 bypass option following the Teche Ridge in St. Martin Parish. This roadway would follow along the natural ridge that follows west of Bayou Teche. This area has few wetlands, does not flood, and is primarily in agricultural use. An engineering feasibility study, funded in part by the St. Martin Police Jury, was completed by the engineering firm T Baker Smith.

And, as taxpayers the difference in estimated cost is staggering. The 5.5 mile I-49 Connector (Divider) is estimated to cost over $1 billion, while the 20 mile Teche Ridge route would cost far less than one third of that total. This is over $200 million per mile for the Connector before costs of toxic waste cleanup and flood control are even considered. The 20 mile Teche Ridge route would cost a more conventional $15 million per mile.

The Teche Ridge route would obviate extending the Lafayette Regional Airport runway into the Cypress Island Swamp, avoid issues of diminished airport safety, obviate wetland loss from fill, and obviate induced flooding associated with the airport revisions. It also greatly improves resilience of hurricane evacuation for the large population living south of Lafayette.

Furthermore, the Teche Ridge route could be a part of a larger project to provide a bypass loop around our urban core. Combining the Teche Ridge route with the western Lafayette Regional Xpressway (LRX) would give Lafayette a full urban interstate loop. Now, note that this 80 mile loop would cost approximately the same as the 5.5 urban Divider being forced on our taxpayers and neighborhoods.


For more information on the Teche Ridge, check out these resources:

Teche Ridge Bypass Facebook page
  https://www.facebook.com/I-49-Teche-Ridge-Bypass-191859984503529/

Presentation by Harold Schoeffler to the St. Martin Parish Police Jury
 https://www.facebook.com/michael.waldon/posts/10204527887710661

Teche News article on the Teche Ridge Highway alternative.

  https://www.facebook.com/michael.waldon/posts/10204512686930651

The Daily Iberian, February 17, 2016, Teche Ridge I-49 proposal gets traction in St. Martin

  http://www.iberianet.com/news/teche-ridge-i--proposal-gets-traction-in-st-martin/article_8568414e-d593-11e5-8443-1b20b9abbe76.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&utm_campaign=user-share

Hurricane Evacuation via Urban Interstate

Rita evacuees from Houston Texas, September 21, 2005
Photo: Wikipedia - Hurricane Evacuation

Hurricane evacuation routes must not only have capacity to carry evacuation traffic, but must also be resilient in the face of challenges of heavy rain and strong gusting winds, motorists running out of gas as electric outages prevent refills, 18 wheeler truck accidents along with auto accidents, and frightened frustrated drivers. How will the planned I-49 Connector perform under these conditions? How does this performance compare to alternatives?

First, how resilient is the Connector design? Resilience is the proposed design? Answer - not at all. A single truck or motorist running out of fuel or having an accident on the elevated bridge could stall or stop traffic for hours as we have seen all too often on the Atchafalaya Basin Bridge. The two elevated roadways planned for the Connector will have no emergency cross overs, and will be susceptible to closure for trucks or even all traffic under high wind conditions. Motorists may well find themselves stranded on the bridge as a hurricane approaches. Moreover, resilience is lost in the design by the planned downgrading of traffic capacity on the Evangeline Thruway. Finally, city residents will find evacuation even more problematic under the Connector design as local traffic is concentrated at entrance ramps.

How does this compare to alternative? Bothe the eastern Teche Ridge route, and the Lafayette Regional Xpressway (LRX) to the west offer added resilience to the highway system under evacuation conditions. Both roadways would be primarily at-grade. This makes them less susceptible to wind hazards, and allows more rapid reopening following accidents or blockages. These options would add capacity for evacuation, while leaving existing city roadways available for city and parish residents to also evacuate when necessary.

Residents of Acadiana are all to familiar with the reliability of long bridges. The I-10 Atchafalaya Basin Bridge all too often is stalled by accidents. A colleague of mine who often commuted across this structure always carried her fishing pole for just such occurrences. Let's not depend on a long bridge for evacuation of our families and neighbors.

Crash closes I-10 for 15 hours along basin bridge.
Photo: http://theadvocate.com/home/9073690-125/two-killed-in-i-10-wreck

The I-49 Lafayette Western Bypass Option: The "Lafayette Regional Xpressway"

One bypass alternative for Lafayette has been under study by the DOTD since 2003. At that time, the Lafayette Metropolitan Expressway Commission was created by the Louisiana State Legislature. They are commissioned to study alternatives for the Lafayette Regional Xpressway, or simply the LRX. The LRX would create a bypass loop which begins in the south at Highway 90 / I-49 south of Broussard, has a major interchanges as it crosses Highway 167 (Johnston Street) north of Abbeville, and I-10 between Duson and Scott. This portion of the roadway would be very roughly 25 miles. The bypass would then continue north and east for roughly 20 miles to return to I-49 north of Carencro. An eastern bypass leg of very roughly 15 miles would run south east from north of Carencro to I-10 west of Breaux Bridge. Total length of the Lafayette Regional Xpressway bypass would then be very roughly 60 miles.

 The Lafayette Metropolitan Expressway 2005 feasibility study’s rendering of a proposed expressway. (Photo: Lafayette Metropolitan Expressway)

At an estimated cost of $760 million, the cost per mile for this roadway is under $13 million per Interstate mile. The 5.5 mile Lafayette Connector project which now has cost estimates of over $1 billion before toxic waste removal and flood mitigation have even been considered. This gives the Connector a cost that will greatly exceed $182 million per mile. 

More information is available at

Lafayette Regional Xpressway Project Website  http://www.lrxpressway.com/

The Advertiser, October 23, 2015,  Citigroup and the Lafayette Loop — what's next?
 http://www.theadvertiser.com/story/news/2015/10/22/citigroup-and-lafayette-loop/74359164/

The Advertiser, October 23, 2015,  Is Lafayette ready for a traffic loop?
 http://www.theadvertiser.com/story/news/2015/07/01/still-loop/29588975/

Source: http://www.lrxpressway.com/

Hazardous Cargo in Downtown Lafayette: A Very Bad Idea

Many communities take the prudent step of limiting hazardous carriers from urban interstates. Photo: http://www.billburmaster.com/rmsandw/indiana/interstate/465in.html

Risk results from a combination of the hazard associated with a substance, and the probability of exposure to the public. Many communities reduce public risk by routing hazardous truck cargo along less populated routes which bypass more urban areas. Unfortunately, the added risk of hazardous transport moving at interstate speeds above or adjacent to downtown Lafayette has been ignored by DOTD and our city planners. The prudent approach that minimizes public risk is to first build a bypass route for I-49 around our dense urban core and downtown area. Only after a suitable hazardous material route is available should an urban interstate be discussed.

 

Traffic Models Have Large Errors and Do Not Provide Reliable Projections

How much can we trust the traffic model projections for Lafayette? Read this Journal of the American Planning Assoc. article which finds: "... forecasters generally do a poor job of estimating the demand for transportation infrastructure projects. ... For half of all road projects, the difference between actual and forecasted traffic is more than ±20%. The result is substantial financial risks, which are typically ignored or downplayed by planners and decision makers to the detriment of social and economic welfare." 

Flyvbjerg, B., M. K. Skamris Holm, et al. (2005). "How (In)Accurate Are Demand Forecasts in Public Works Projects? The Case of Transportation." Journal of the American Planning Association 71(2).

During presentations to the community, our Louisiana DOTD has given dire projections of traffic problems that they predict will happen in 2040 if we do not capitulate to building the I-49 Connector through the heart of Lafayette. As pointed out in the JAPA article, there is great uncertainty associated with all such predictions. And, beyond the model error discussed in this professional journal article, other uncertainties complicate the projections for Lafayette:

1. The model projections being presented to the community assume no tolls will be charged. Will the Connector charge tolls in 2040? We have been told on numerous occasions that tolls are likely the only feasible way to finance this project. Charging a toll will discourage use for local trips, and actually increase traffic on remaining surface city streets. 
2. If the Connector is not built, what other highway improvements may happen prior to 2040? If the Connector concept is abandoned, it is likely that one of the proposed I-49 bypass routes will be developed. However, if the Connector is completed, it is unlikely Lafayette will see construction of a bypass by 2040.
3. What improvements in transportation technology will occur over the next 25 years? The model assumes that in 2040 we will still be driving the same basic cars and trucks, carrying the same freight loads on trucks, and using the same traffic management systems that are in use today.
4. What will Greater Lafayette's population be in 2040 and how will population centers change? The traffic model uses input demographic projections, and quality of the model output is no better than that of the input. We may believe that the trend of population growth south of Lafayette will continue unabated in future decades. However, realities of availability of suitably drained land, and future increases in flooding from the Vermilion and its tributaries may actually drive population growth north of the city. Really, only time will tell.

So, what does a wise investor do in the face of uncertainty? Certainly not construct the massively costly I-49 Lafayette Connector.

This post was based on an earlier Facebook post

 https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10204985749076909&set=a.1950146486814.85718.1637181971&type=3&theater